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Forecast
What the rest of the day does — and how much the forecast can be trusted.
The next 12 hours
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Where these curves come from
Every curve on this page starts as the ECMWF model (IFS HRES, 9 km), obtained through Open-Meteo, hourly, for each spot’s own coordinates. The 9 km grid does not see the Cape’s thermal wind: in wind from southerly to westerly directions (SE to W) the model reads low. For those hours — and only those — we add a per-spot uplift, mean and gusts separately. Wind from other directions, such as the north-westerly fronts, the model resolves; those hours stay raw. The stamp above each curve says which applies: “ECMWF” alone is the raw model, “+ Cape correction” the corrected one, “SE–W corrected” a day holding both. All of it is a model — not a measurement on the beach. The raw model values are on every spot page under Wind source.
A second model for comparison sits at the foot of every spot page: the Windguru table. Where the two diverge, the day is open.
Why this gets better
The Cape correction is our own judgement — from years on the water here, not from someone else’s model. It sits in a table, one row per spot, and it is not set in stone. At Rietvlei there is a real anemometer: the gap between that measurement and our corrected curve is the touchstone. Where it repeats, we change the uplift for that spot. The more measuring stations join, the more accurate this gets — spot by spot, season by season.
The wind source is not responding. No figures are shown while they are missing.